American Civil War II and its aftermath

Historians will, I predict, deem the current situation in the United States the American Civil War II.

This is a civil war instigated by the federal government when it began sending unnecessary and militarized forces into American cities. I date the start to the weekend of October 4, 2025 when Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth secretly ordered U.S. military troops to Chicago and Portland, Oregon, to aid and abet violence by federal agents against peaceful civilian populations. The militaristic federal invasion and occupation of Minneapolis is a continuation of this war.

Civil wars do not follow a template. Secession is not a necessary condition for an American civil war. In the current one, the American Democracy side and the Republican Fascist side are in existential disagreement over the following constitutional questions.

• Whether the executive branch of the federal government is constrained by the U.S. Constitution, laws passed by Congress, and judicial branch reiterations of either or both.
• Whether the executive branch may ignore the Constitutionally-defined sovereignty of states.

These are now live issues. The Trump regime has made them live by adopting the view that the federal executive branch is not constrained by the Constitution and relevant federal laws and using militaristic force against Americans in states whose voters have rejected this position and whose governors side with American Democracy.

Whichever side prevails, a new constitutional settlement will be required. Implementing that settlement will involve reconstruction, as was attempted after the American Civil War I and in Europe and Japan after World War II. It may or may not require or involve explicit constitutional amendments.

Reconstructions involve extraordinary measures, not necessarily intended to be permanent. They can be done better or worse, more or less fully. But if the American Democracy side wins, it should not expect or pursue “normal” politics and law once it controls the Congress and the executive branch.

The federal judiciary, especially the federal appellate courts and the Supreme Court, will have to be overhauled. A host of constraints on the executive branch will have to be legislated, enacted, and implemented. The Department of Homeland Security will have to be eliminated and, to the extent necessary, replaced by smaller, more clearly defined and constrained Cabinet department and subordinate agencies. Myriad post-9/11 laws will have to be repealed. These are minimal requirements for a reconstruction of U.S. constitutional democracy. There may be other changes, such as reform or elimination of the electoral college.

If and when meaningfully free and fair elections are held in the United States, those of us on the side of American Democracy must support and vote for the candidates who understand the terms of the American Civil War II and what will be required if our side prevails.